YMTC NAND Shipments Seen Up 800% as China Memory Rises; Nvidia Denies RTX 5090 Exit

Counterpoint Research expects YMTC’s enterprise-SSD NAND shipments to grow about 800% between 2026 and 2028. China’s memory makers are scaling up — CXMT forecasts up to RMB 132.5 billion in nine-month profit — while Micron sells out 2027 HBM capacity, Nvidia insists the RTX 5090 lives on, and AI chip orders still outrun supply.

Key takeaways

• YMTC ranked third in global NAND shipments in Q2 2026 with a 14% share, passing Kioxia and Micron, Counterpoint Research says.
• CXMT forecasts nine-month 2026 revenue of RMB 265–270 billion and net profit of RMB 131–132.5 billion, swinging from a loss a year earlier.
• Micron’s new Taichung packaging plant is sold out for 2027, and most of its overall 2027 HBM capacity is already booked.
• Nvidia says the RTX 5090 has not been discontinued, though it acknowledges supply-chain capacity remains constrained.
• Jensen Huang says AI chip orders arrive almost daily and still outrun supply; power and data-center readiness are the bottlenecks.
• Unimicron, the world’s No. 2 ABF substrate supplier, halted some machinery after a fatal accident; it says production is unaffected.

Counterpoint sees YMTC enterprise-SSD NAND shipments up 800% by 2028

China’s NAND challenger keeps climbing. According to Counterpoint Research, YMTC ranked third in global NAND flash shipments in the second quarter of 2026 with a 14% share — behind Samsung (25%) and SK hynix (22%), and ahead of Kioxia and Micron. Counting SK hynix’s Solidigm separately, YMTC would rank second. The company filed its STAR Market IPO prospectus in August.

YMTC’s global NAND revenue share rose from 9% in Q1 2025 to 14% in Q1 2026, with quarterly revenue up as much as 478% year on year. Counterpoint expects YMTC’s 2026 revenue to grow six times faster than the industry and its peers, citing AI data-center demand, rising prices and strong domestic Chinese demand.

The main engine is enterprise SSDs: Counterpoint forecasts YMTC’s enterprise-SSD NAND shipments to grow about 800% between 2026 and 2028, lifting server-related revenue from nearly zero in 2024 to roughly 39% of the total by 2028. The prospectus shows cumulative R&D spending of RMB 14.2 billion from 2023 to 2025, 4,796 R&D staff and 5,611 granted invention patents. Long-term goals: lifting NAND shipment share from 16.5% to 20% and reaching roughly 500,000 wafers per month of capacity.

CXMT forecasts up to RMB 132.5 billion in nine-month profit, proposes buyback

China’s DRAM leader delivered a forecast to match the cycle. On October 16, CXMT said it expects nine-month 2026 revenue of RMB 265–270 billion, up 726–741.5% year on year, and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 131–132.5 billion — a swing from a loss of RMB 5.28 billion a year earlier. The company credits the AI-driven DRAM upcycle since late 2025, tight supply and sharply higher prices, alongside higher output per wafer and utilization. Calculations based on the forecast suggest third-quarter net profit growth slowed to roughly 1–4% quarter on quarter.

The same evening, chairman Zhu Yiming proposed buying back RMB 1–2 billion of the company’s A-shares with own or self-raised funds, for employee stock ownership plans or equity incentives, or to reduce registered capital. The proposed repurchase price cap is 150% of the average trading price over the 30 sessions before board approval, within a 12-month window; the plan still requires board and shareholder approval.

Micron’s new Taichung plant sells out 2027 capacity before opening

HBM supply is effectively spoken for through 2027. At the October 15 opening of its second advanced assembly and test plant (AATT2) in Taichung, Micron president and COO Manish Bhatia said the new fab’s entire 2027 capacity is already sold out, and Micron’s latest financial results show most of its overall 2027 HBM capacity is booked. The company expects HBM demand to outgrow conventional DRAM through 2028.

Taiwan remains central to the roadmap: Micron has invested more than NT$1.6 trillion across four sites — Taichung for advanced DRAM, HBM manufacturing and packaging-test; Taoyuan’s next-generation DRAM lines due between late 2027 and early 2028; Miaoli Tongluo’s first production phase in the second half of 2027; and Tainan for wafer testing.

Nvidia denies RTX 5090 discontinuation, but supply stays tight

Nvidia says its flagship gaming GPU is not dead. Senior vice president Jeff Fisher told Taiwan media on October 16 that the GeForce RTX 5090 has not been discontinued and will keep shipping, while acknowledging supply-chain capacity remains constrained, according to the report.

The statement responded to rumors circulating since October 10 that Nvidia might stop supplying the RTX 5090’s GB202 chips to the consumer graphics channel, redirecting resources toward data-center and professional products; some Micro Center listings marked the card unavailable, feeding the speculation. Fisher stressed that GeForce, the foundation of the CUDA ecosystem behind today’s AI computing, remains important to the company. The denial calms discontinuation fears but does not restore supply: availability remains tight, street prices are high, and whether GB202 allocation to consumer cards improves is still to be seen.

Huang: AI chip orders arrive almost daily, still outrunning supply

Demand continues to exceed what Nvidia can ship. In a BG2 podcast interview aired October 16, CEO Jensen Huang said AI chip orders are arriving almost weekly and even daily, and that the company keeps adding supply while the order book keeps growing. Customers typically forecast demand a year or more ahead, the largest planning two years out.

The constraints are not demand but infrastructure: insufficient power, unfinished data centers and limited component supply, Huang said. Separately, speaking in Stockholm, Huang said AI cloud operator CoreWeave’s finances are improving and its cost of capital is falling, so Nvidia sees no need to provide further financial support.

Fatal accident halts some machinery at Unimicron’s Yangmei plant

A workplace accident has partially idled the world’s second-largest ABF substrate maker. Taiwan’s Unimicron Electronics reported that at around 2:34 p.m. on October 13, an employee at its Yangmei Plant 1 was fatally injured by equipment during repair and reset procedures; the worker was rushed to hospital but did not survive. Taoyuan labor inspectors issued a partial stop-work order covering the machinery involved, resumable only after corrections are approved by the authorities.

Unimicron holds roughly 18% of the global ABF substrate market, second only to Japan’s Ibiden, and the Yangmei site produces high-end ABF substrates for custom ASIC applications. The company said overall production and operations are unaffected and that it is cooperating with the investigation.

Sources

• Counterpoint Research insight, October 13, 2026 — YMTC climbs to No. 3 in global NAND, enterprise-SSD outlook — https://counterpointresearch.com/cn/insights/ymtc-files-for-landmark-ipo-after-climbing-to-no-3-in-global-nand-race-with-dram-next
• Caixin, August 12, 2026 — YMTC takes No. 3 NAND shipment share; industry revenue up fivefold — https://www.caixin.com/2026-08-12/102473512.html
• ifeng, October 16, 2026 — CXMT nine-month forecast and chairman’s buyback proposal — https://news.ifeng.com/c/8xHLTMmakCO
• 36Kr, October 19, 2026 — CXMT Q3 sequential growth slowdown analysis — https://www.36kr.com/p/4032660412569224
• Seoul Economic Daily, October 16, 2026 — Micron opens second Taichung HBM packaging plant, 2027 sold out — https://en.sedaily.com/international/2026/10/17/micron-opens-second-ai-memory-packaging-plant-in-taichung
• DIGITIMES Asia, October 14, 2026 — Unimicron Yangmei plant accident and partial stop-work order — https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20261014PD236/ic-substrate-plant-investigation-production-inspection.html
• Webull News, October 16, 2026 — Huang on BG2: orders arrive almost weekly and daily — https://www.webull.com/news/15753698404885504

FAQ

How fast is YMTC’s enterprise-SSD business expected to grow?

Counterpoint Research forecasts YMTC’s enterprise-SSD NAND shipments to grow about 800% between 2026 and 2028, lifting server-related revenue from nearly zero in 2024 to about 39% of the total by 2028. By revenue, however, YMTC still ranked fifth in Q2 2026, behind Kioxia and Micron, because its product mix skews toward consumer applications.

What do CXMT’s numbers say about the DRAM cycle?

CXMT forecasts nine-month 2026 net profit of RMB 131–132.5 billion, versus a RMB 5.28 billion loss a year earlier, on revenue of RMB 265–270 billion — the result of the AI-driven DRAM upcycle since late 2025, tight supply and higher utilization. But calculations based on the forecast put third-quarter net profit growth at only about 1–4% quarter on quarter, a sharp slowdown from earlier in 2026.

Is the RTX 5090 being discontinued?

Nvidia says no. Senior vice president Jeff Fisher confirmed on October 16 that the RTX 5090 remains in production and will continue shipping, while acknowledging supply constraints. The rumor had suggested Nvidia would redirect GB202 chips from consumer graphics to data-center and professional products. Availability remains tight, and whether consumer allocation of GB202 improves is still to be seen.

Why does Micron’s sold-out 2027 capacity matter?

Micron says its new Taichung packaging plant’s entire 2027 output and most of its overall 2027 HBM capacity are already booked, and it expects HBM demand to outgrow conventional DRAM through 2028. New back-end capacity is arriving fully contracted, a signal that HBM scarcity is unlikely to ease before 2028.